Is network traffic growth dwindling to a trickle?

“Network capacities are sufficient, and with data usage expected to plateau in the coming years, further capacity expansion is not needed. We have reached the end of history for communications.”  

Willian Webb, The End of Telecoms History

William Webb has pedigree when it comes to foreseeing telecoms trends.  

William Webb

Webb wrote The 5G Myth in 2016, warning that 5G would be a flop.

In the book, he argued that the wireless standard's features would create limited interest and fail to grow revenues for mobile operators. 

The next seven years saw the telcos promoting 5G and its capabilities. Now, they admit their considerable investments in 5G have delivered underwhelming returns.

His latest book, The End of Telecoms History, argues that telecoms has reached a maturity that satisfies the link speeds needed and that traffic growth is slowing. 

"There will be no end of new applications," says Webb. "But they won't result in material growth in data requirements or in data speeds."  

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The significance of 6G

Henning Schulzrinne is known for speaking his mind.

A professor at the Department of Computer Science and the Department of Electrical Engineering at Columbia University, he previously expressed concern regarding what he saw as excessive hype surrounding 5G.

More recently, he has written about 6G, placing the emerging wireless standard in the broader context of societal needs.

"Research, particularly academic research, should be driven by the urgent needs of society, not just supplying patent-protected 'moats' against the competition, whether between companies or nations," he wrote in an introduction to the book, Shaping Future 6G Networks.

Schulzrinne stresses he is not working on 6G standards but has taken part in an early 6G flagship project at the University of Oulu, Finland.

"My expertise is not on the radio; it is system architecture," he says. "We have a lot of interest in my research group on issues such as automation and authentication, not specifically to 6G but to networks."

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