A career in technology market analysis

John Lively reflects on a 30-year career.

It was a typical workday in 1989, sitting through a meeting announcing the restructuring of Corning's planar coupler business.

The speaker's final words were, "Lively, you'll be doing forecasting." It changed my life and set my career path for the next 30-plus years.

John Lively, principal analyst at market research firm, LightCounting.

No one grows up with a desire to be a market analyst. Indeed, I didn't ask for the job. What made it possible was an IBM PC and LOTUS 1-2-3 in my marine biology lab in the early 1980s (a story for another time).

After a stop at MIT for an MBA, this led to a job in Corning's fledgling PC support team in 1985. Then it was Corning's optical fibre business cost-modelling fibre-to-the-home networks on a PC, working with Bellcore and General Instrument engineers. From there, it was to forecast market demand for planar couplers in the FTTH market.

In the following decade, I had various market forecasting roles within Corning's optical fibre and photonics businesses.

Each time I tried to put forecasting behind me by taking a marketing or product management job, management said they needed me to return to forecasting due to some crisis or another (thank you, Bernie Ebbers).

In 1999, I had an epiphany. If Corning thinks I'm better at forecasting than anything else, perhaps I should become a professional forecaster in a company whose product is forecasts.

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ADTRAN-ADVA's metro-access play

ADTRAN and ADVA have agreed to merge after a long courtship.

The two CEOs have spoken regularly over the years but several developments spurred them to act.

Tom Stanton, ADTRAN CEO

The merger combines ADTRAN’s expertise in access technologies with ADVA’s metro wavelength-division multiplexing (WDM) know-how to create a ‘metro-core-to-door’ company with revenues of $1.2 billion.

As such, the merger promises to double their size and networking skills. Yet the stock market appeared underwhelmed by the announcement, with ADTRAN’s shares down 16% for the rest of the week after the deal was announced. 

Market research analysts, however, are more upbeat.

“ADTRAN and ADVA have a better path forward together than separately,” said John Lively, principal analyst at LightCounting Market Research, in a research note.

The deal is expected to close in the second or third quarter of 2022 but only after several hurdles are overcome in what is described as a complex deal.

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Optical supply chain set to withstand the COVID-19 crisis

The optical supply chain will not experience any lasting damage as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. So argues LightCounting in a research note.   

John LivelyThe market research company notes how the experience of the Coronavirus pandemic has highlighted the many benefits of the digital economy.

And the jolt the world is experiencing will if anything, strengthen it.

“All kind of things are happening as a result of the pandemic,” says John Lively, principal analyst at LightCounting and author of the research note. “Telecommuting, telelearning and telemedicine have all been used before, but never on a scale like this.”  

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Hyperscaler or ICP?

Several terms are commonly used when referring to leading internet companies, those that operate large-scale data centres and typically are household names.

Terms used include internet content providers (ICP), hyperscalers and mega data centre operators. Meanwhile, a leading system vendor, in a briefing, referred to ‘global content providers’.  

The terms are used interchangeably but, not surprisingly, there are differences.

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Mobile fronthaul: A Q&A with LightCounting's John Lively

LightCounting Market Research' s report finds that mobile fronthaul networks will use over 14 million optical transceivers in 2014, resulting in a market valued at US $530 million. This is roughly the size to the FTTX market. However, unlike FTTX, sales of fronthaul transceivers will nearly double in the next five years, to exceed $900 million. A Q&A with LightCounting's principal analyst, John Lively.

Q. What is mobile fronthaul?

There is a simple explanation for mobile front-haul but that belies how complicated it is.

The equipment manufacturers got together about 10 years ago and came up with the idea to separate the functionality within a base station. The idea is that if you separate the functionality into two parts, you can move some of it to the tower and thereby reduce the equipment, power and space needed in the hut below. That is the distributed base station.

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