ECOC '22 Reflections - Part 2

Gazettabyte is asking industry and academic figures for their thoughts after attending ECOC 2022, held in Basel, Switzerland. In particular, what developments and trends they noted, what they learned, and what, if anything, surprised them. 

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In Part 2, Broadcom‘s Rajiv Pancholy, optical communications advisor, Chris Cole, LightCouting’s Vladimir Kozlov, Ciena’s Helen Xenos, and Synopsys’ Twan Korthorst share their thoughts.

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A career in technology market analysis

John Lively reflects on a 30-year career.

It was a typical workday in 1989, sitting through a meeting announcing the restructuring of Corning's planar coupler business.

The speaker's final words were, "Lively, you'll be doing forecasting." It changed my life and set my career path for the next 30-plus years.

John Lively, principal analyst at market research firm, LightCounting.

No one grows up with a desire to be a market analyst. Indeed, I didn't ask for the job. What made it possible was an IBM PC and LOTUS 1-2-3 in my marine biology lab in the early 1980s (a story for another time).

After a stop at MIT for an MBA, this led to a job in Corning's fledgling PC support team in 1985. Then it was Corning's optical fibre business cost-modelling fibre-to-the-home networks on a PC, working with Bellcore and General Instrument engineers. From there, it was to forecast market demand for planar couplers in the FTTH market.

In the following decade, I had various market forecasting roles within Corning's optical fibre and photonics businesses.

Each time I tried to put forecasting behind me by taking a marketing or product management job, management said they needed me to return to forecasting due to some crisis or another (thank you, Bernie Ebbers).

In 1999, I had an epiphany. If Corning thinks I'm better at forecasting than anything else, perhaps I should become a professional forecaster in a company whose product is forecasts.

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Changing the radio access network for good

The industry initiative to open up the radio access network, known as open RAN, is changing how the mobile network is architected and is proving its detractors wrong.

So says a recent open RAN study by market research company, LightCounting.

Stéphane Téral

"The virtual RAN and open RAN sceptics are wrong," says Stéphane Téral, chief analyst at LightCounting.

Japan's mobile operators, Rakuten Mobile and NTT Docomo, lead the world with large-scale open RAN deployments.

Meanwhile, many leading communications service providers (CSPs) continue to trial the technology with substantial deployments planned around 2024-25.

Japan's fourth and newest mobile network operator, Rakuten Mobile, deployed 40,000 open RAN sites with 200,000 radio units by the start of 2022.

Meanwhile, NTT Docomo, Japan's largest mobile operator, deployed 10,000 sites in 2021 and will deploy another 10,000 this year.

NTT Docomo has shown that open RAN also benefits incumbent operators, not just new mobile entrants like Rakuten Mobile and Dish Networks in the US that can embrace the latest technologies as they roll out their networks.

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Books read in 2021: Final Part

In the final favoured reads during 2021, the contributors are Daryl Inniss of OFS, Vladimir Kozlov of LightCounting Market Research, and Gazettabyte’s editor.

Daryl Inniss, Director, Business Development at OFS

Four thousand weeks is the average human lifetime.

The book by Oliver Burkeman: Four Thousand Weeks: Time Management For Mortals is a guide to using the finite duration of our lives.

Burkeman argues that by ignoring the reality of our limited lifetime, we fill our lives with busyness and distractions and fail to achieve the very fullness that we seek.

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Marvell's 50G PAM-4 DSP for 5G optical fronthaul

• Marvell has announced the first 50-gigabit 4-level pulse-amplitude modulation (PAM-4) physical layer (PHY) for 5G fronthaul.

• The chip completes Marvell’s comprehensive portfolio for 5G radio access network (RAN) and x-haul (fronthaul, midhaul and backhaul).

Marvell's wireless portfolio of ICs. Source: Marvell.

Marvell has announced what it claims is an industry-first: a 50-gigabit PHY for the 5G fronthaul market.

Dubbed the AtlasOne, the PAM-4 PHY chip also integrates the laser driver. Marvell claims this is another first: implementing the directly modulated laser (DML) driver in CMOS.

“The common thinking in the industry has been that you couldn’t do a DML driver in CMOS due to the current requirements,” says Matt Bolig, director, product marketing, optical connectivity at Marvell. “What we have shown is that we can build that into CMOS.”

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Lumentum bulks up with NeoPhotonics buy

Lumentum is to acquire fellow component and module specialist, NeoPhotonics, for $918 million.

The deal will expand Lumentum’s optical transmission product line, broadening its component portfolio and boosting its high-end coherent line-side product offerings.

Vladimir Kozlov

Gaining NeoPhotonics' 400-gigabit coherent offerings will enable Lumentum to better compete with Cisco and Marvell. Lumentum will also gain a talented team of photonics experts as it looks to address new opportunities.

Alan Lowe, Lumentum’s president and CEO, stressed the importance of this collective optical expertise.

Speaking on the call announcing the agreement, Lowe said the expanded know-how would benefit Lumentum’s traditional markets and accelerate its entrance into other, newer markets.

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ADTRAN-ADVA's metro-access play

ADTRAN and ADVA have agreed to merge after a long courtship.

The two CEOs have spoken regularly over the years but several developments spurred them to act.

Tom Stanton, ADTRAN CEO

The merger combines ADTRAN’s expertise in access technologies with ADVA’s metro wavelength-division multiplexing (WDM) know-how to create a ‘metro-core-to-door’ company with revenues of $1.2 billion.

As such, the merger promises to double their size and networking skills. Yet the stock market appeared underwhelmed by the announcement, with ADTRAN’s shares down 16% for the rest of the week after the deal was announced. 

Market research analysts, however, are more upbeat.

“ADTRAN and ADVA have a better path forward together than separately,” said John Lively, principal analyst at LightCounting Market Research, in a research note.

The deal is expected to close in the second or third quarter of 2022 but only after several hurdles are overcome in what is described as a complex deal.

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