P-OTS 2.0: 60s interview with Heavy Reading's Sterling Perrin

Heavy Reading has surveyed over 100 operators worldwide about their packet optical transport plans. Sterling Perrin, senior analyst at Heavy Reading, talks about the findings.
Published book, click here
Heavy Reading has surveyed over 100 operators worldwide about their packet optical transport plans. Sterling Perrin, senior analyst at Heavy Reading, talks about the findings.
"I won't be surprised if it [100 Gig] grows even faster"
Jimmy Yu, Dell'Oro Group
China has become the world's biggest market for passive optical network (PON) technology even though deployments there have barely begun. That is because China, with approximately a quarter of a billion households, dwarfs all other markets. Yet according to market research firm Ovum, only 7% of Chinese homes were connected by year end 2011.
"In 2012, BOSAs [board-based PON optical sub-assemblies] will represent the majority versus optical transceivers for PON ONTs and ONUs"
Julie Kunstler, Ovum
The view that the optical industry is due a shake-up has been aired periodically over the last decade. Yet the industry's structure has remained intact. Now, with the depressed state of the telecom industry, the spectre of impending restructuring is again being raised.
In Part 2, Gazettabyte asked several market research analysts - Heavy Reading's Sterling Perrin, Ovum's Daryl Inniss and Dell'Oro's Jimmy Yu - for their views.
Part II: The analysts' view
"It is just a very slow, grinding process of adjustment; I am not sure that the next five years will be any different to what we've seen"
Sterling Perrin, Heavy Reading
Market research firm Dell'Oro Group has reported that the global optical transport equipment market in the first half of 2012 shrank 5 percent, to US $6.1 billion. In the latest 60-second interview, Gazettabyte spoke with Jimmy Yu, vice president of optical transport research at Dell’Oro Group.
"For the year, it is going to be a fivefold growth rate [for 100 Gig transport]."
Jimmy Yu, Dell'Oro
The view that consolidation in the optical networking industry is needed is not new. For a decade, ever since the end of the optical boom in 2001, consolidation has been called for and has been expected. And while the many optical startups funded then have long exited or been acquired, the optical industry continues to support numerous optical networking and component generalist and specialists.
Given the state of the telecom market, is a more fundamental industry restructuring finally on its way?
"The business model of the communication sector needs to change, and change in a relatively short order"
Larry Schwerin, CEO of Capella Intelligent Subsystems
Source: Infonetics Research
The OTN transport and switching market is forecast to grow at a 17% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2011 to 2016, outpacing the 5.5% CAGR of the optical equipment market (WDM, SONET/SDH). So claims a recent study on the OTN equipment marketplace by Infonetics Research.
A Q&A with report author, Andrew Schmitt, principal analyst for optical at Infonetics.